Time for CFP rankings to make a statement about good wins, bad losses

It’s at this point where everyone falls in line, where 10 weeks of varying college football polls suddenly — almost magically, really — become oddly similar.  

Now it’s up to the College Football Playoff selection committee to figure it all out. And they were given the ‘tools’ to do just that.

In theory, anyway.

“This team just won’t go away,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said after his team beat Florida late, and now hopes a resume of come-from-behind wins will plant it somewhere near the top four of the first CFP poll of the season.

Or exactly where Georgia is in both the US LBM Coaches and Associated Press polls. Those two polls played a game of footsie for two months, before falling into the comfortably numbing annual regurgitation of mirroring.

That mirroring and slotting by wins is what the commissioners of the Big Ten and SEC ― you know, conferences who run the sport ― spent all offseason talking about. They floated ideas to change the CFP selection committee, eliminate it, and give it stronger metrics. They settled on new metrics.

New metrics, you say? Well, it’s complicated.

The selection committee is now supposed to consider good wins and bad losses, and bad wins and good losses. Basically, just analyze the schedule and not simply slot teams based on wins.

The committee’s first chance to embrace that concept is Tuesday night, with its first poll of the season. But if history tells us anything, the CFP selection committee poll will closely resemble the media polls until the final poll of the season ― when the eye test supersedes all.

Until then, get ready for the copycat show.    

The first 10 teams of the two media polls are identical, and the final two — it’s a 12-team CFP format — are swapped. Virginia is No. 11 in the coaches poll, and No. 12 in the AP poll, and Oklahoma is its opposite. 

Anyone who believes Virginia is one of the top 12 teams in college football hasn’t been watching Virginia. But that’s another Indiana story (circa, 2024) for another time. 

A look at the projected CFP poll, with the real deal set to arrive shortly. Remember, these are the 12 best teams (we’ll figure out the five automatic qualifiers after the fact).

Projected CFP bracket rankings

1. Indiana: If we’re being intellectual honest, it’s Indiana and a long way to No. 2. No one else has been so impressive. Next: at Penn State.   

2. Texas A&M: Aggies coach Mike Elko continues to pound the drum of ignoring the past. This isn’t your grandaddy’s Texas A&M — or Jimbo Fisher’s. Next: at Missouri.

3. Ohio State: For those harping on Ohio State’s strength of schedule, the combined record of FBS opponents is 35-24. Better than some in the Top 12, worse than others. Next: at Purdue. 

4. Alabama: The bye week arrived perfectly after a run of four straight games against ranked teams, and an SEC road game. It’s essentially a one-game schedule (Oklahoma, Nov. 15) on the way to the SEC championship game. Next: vs. LSU.

5. Oregon: Ducks return from the bye with a difficult November, including two difficult road environments (Iowa, Washington). Next: at Iowa. 

6. Georgia: How much longer can Georgia continue to rely on fourth quarter (or overtime) comebacks? Better not get behind this week, on the road, against a team that’s beginning to believe. Next: at Mississippi State. 

8. Texas Tech: Don’t underestimate going on the road and beating surging K-State. All eight wins have been by at least 23 points. Next: BYU.

9. Texas: For three quarters, Texas played its best game of the season against a hot team (Vanderbilt). Then almost blew it. Not buying it just yet. Next: Bye. 

10. Notre Dame: Lost both difficult games on the schedule (Miami, Texas A&M), but had chances to win both. A cakewalk November to 10 wins. Next: Navy.

11. Oklahoma: Sooners in their own personal playoff in November. Win out, and they’re in (at Alabama, Missouri, LSU). Lose once, and it’s going to be difficult to make the CFP. Next: Bye. 

12. Vanderbilt: The classic potential 10-win team that might be left out. The problem: all anyone will remember is the ugly loss to Texas — no matter what the final score says. Next: Auburn.

CFP updated bracket projection

Five automatic qualifiers

• Indiana (projected Big Ten champion), Alabama (SEC), Texas Tech (Big 12), Louisville (ACC), South Florida (Group of 6).

First round byes

• Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Alabama.

The first round

• (12) South Florida at (5) Oregon
• (11) Louisville at (6) Georgia
• (10) Notre Dame at (7) Ole Miss
• (9) Texas at (8) Texas Tech

When will first 2025 CFP rankings be released?

The first College Football Playoff rankings will be announced between 8-8:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 4 on ESPN, which will drop all the CFP rankings.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.

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